Saturday 12 September 2026 — Premier League Gameweek 4

Today brings seven Premier League matches, including Liverpool v Fulham, Chelsea v Hull City, Tottenham v Everton and Sunderland v Arsenal. Arsenal can move to the top of the table with a win or draw, while Hull arrive at Stamford Bridge unbeaten and yet to concede a league goal.

The percentages below are my match-probability assessment, using the current form, home advantage, squad strength and the latest market probabilities as a guide. They are predictions, not guarantees.

Today’s Premier League predictions

Match | Home win | Draw | Away win | My prediction
Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest | 47% | 27% | 26% | Villa 1–0
Bournemouth v Brentford | 37% | 27% | 36% | 1–1
Chelsea v Hull City | 75% | 16% | 9% | Chelsea 2–0
Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town | 50% | 27% | 23% | Palace 2–1
Liverpool v Fulham | 64% | 20% | 16% | Liverpool 3–1
Tottenham Hotspur v Everton | 48% | 27% | 25% | Tottenham 1–0
Sunderland v Arsenal | 14% | 23% | 63% | Arsenal 2–0

The underlying market probabilities are broadly consistent with these numbers: Chelsea are the strongest home favourite of the seven, Liverpool are strong favourites against Fulham and Arsenal are clear favourites at Sunderland. Bournemouth-Brentford is the closest match.

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Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest

Villa win 47% | Draw 27% | Forest win 26%

Both clubs desperately want the three points. Villa’s previous league match was a 0–0 draw at Hull, while Forest also drew 0–0 with Tottenham. Villa therefore have home advantage but neither side arrives with much attacking momentum.

If Villa win: confidence could change quickly after their poor start.

If Villa draw: frustration will grow because they remain without a league win.

If Villa lose: pressure on the team increases considerably.

Forest have already shown they can frustrate opponents. A second consecutive 0–0 would not be a surprise.

FPL: Morgan Gibbs-White is Forest’s standout Fantasy option, currently on 18 points.

My pick: Villa 1–0 Forest.

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Bournemouth v Brentford

Bournemouth win 37% | Draw 27% | Brentford win 36%

This is arguably the hardest game of the day to call.

Bournemouth have drawn their last two league matches, including a 2–2 draw at Newcastle. Brentford have also drawn their last two, including 1–1 against Sunderland.

That makes another draw particularly attractive.

Fantasy player to watch

Alex Scott — Bournemouth — 24 FPL points

Scott has one goal and two assists and is averaging 8 points per game, making him one of today’s most interesting cheaper Fantasy options.

For Brentford, Mathias Jensen? I’d instead look at the current form players: the Brentford FPL data has Vitaly Janelt on 21 points, with Kevin Schade on 15.

My pick: Bournemouth 1–1 Brentford.

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Chelsea v Hull City

Chelsea win 75% | Draw 16% | Hull win 9%

This is the biggest test yet for Hull.

Hull have won twice and drawn once and, remarkably, have not conceded a Premier League goal. Chelsea, meanwhile, lost 2–1 at Arsenal last time out.

So Chelsea have the stronger squad, but Hull’s defence means this may not be straightforward.

Fantasy football

Cole Palmer — 21 points

Palmer has two goals and an assist and remains one of the best Chelsea Fantasy selections. The official FPL Scout also recommends Palmer, Morgan Rogers and João Pedro as a Chelsea triple-up for Gameweek 4.

Hull: Regan Slater remains an interesting budget option after his strong early-season performances, while goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis has already impressed with Hull’s defensive record.

If Chelsea’s previous loss matters

The 2–1 defeat to Arsenal should actually make Chelsea dangerous today. They have a chance to respond immediately. Hull’s unbeaten start, however, means Chelsea cannot afford to underestimate them.

My pick: Chelsea 2–0 Hull.

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Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town

Palace win 50% | Draw 27% | Ipswich win 23%

Palace come into the game with confidence after beating Fulham 3–2. Ipswich, meanwhile, lost 2–0 to Liverpool after previously losing 5–2 at Manchester United.

That makes this a classic confidence-versus-recovery game.

Fantasy football

Tyrick Mitchell — 16 FPL points

Mitchell has scored twice and is Palace’s leading current FPL scorer on the data available, making him an interesting defensive/attacking combination.

For Ipswich, Leif Davis has 9 points, including a goal this season, although Ipswich’s defensive fixtures make him a risk.

If Palace win: their confidence grows rapidly.

If Ipswich win: it could be the result that restarts their season.

My pick: Crystal Palace 2–1 Ipswich.

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Liverpool v Fulham

Liverpool win 64% | Draw 20% | Fulham win 16%

Liverpool have finally recorded their first league victory, beating Ipswich 2–0 last weekend. Fulham have lost all three league matches so far, including a 3–2 defeat against Crystal Palace.

Liverpool therefore have a major psychological advantage.

The big Fantasy decision

Cody Gakpo — 28 FPL points

Gakpo is currently Liverpool’s highest-scoring Fantasy player, with 28 points, one goal and three assists.

Alexander Isak — 23 points

Isak has scored three league goals and has reached 23 Fantasy points.

The official FPL Scout specifically highlights Isak for Gameweek 4 and notes that he is only one point behind Haaland in the forward standings.

What happens after the last game?

Liverpool’s 2–0 win should increase confidence, particularly after two opening draws.

Fulham have the opposite problem: three consecutive defeats. They need an early goal or Liverpool could take control.

My pick: Liverpool 3–1 Fulham.

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Tottenham Hotspur v Everton

Tottenham win 48% | Draw 27% | Everton win 25%

This is one of the most psychologically interesting matches.

Tottenham are without a league win and without a league goal after three games. Their last match was a 0–0 draw at Nottingham Forest.

Everton drew 2–2 with Manchester United, rescuing a point through Ainsley Maitland-Niles’ debut goal.

If Tottenham win

Their entire season could change. Three points and their first goal would remove considerable pressure.

If Tottenham lose

Having only one point after four games would make the pressure on Roberto De Zerbi much greater. Sky Sports is already asking how concerned Spurs should be about their winless and goalless start.

Fantasy

Jan Paul van Hecke — 10 points is currently one of Spurs’ better FPL scorers, while Sandro Tonali has 9.

Everton’s current leading player is Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall on 15 points, ahead of goalkeeper Jordan Pickford’s 11 and Thierno Barry’s 12.

My pick: Tottenham 1–0 Everton.

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Sunderland v Arsenal

Sunderland win 14% | Draw 23% | Arsenal win 63%

This is Arsenal’s opportunity to go top.

Arsenal have won all three Premier League matches so far, including 2–1 against Chelsea, and have conceded only one league goal. Sunderland have four points after three matches.

Arsenal also beat Napoli 1–0 in the Champions League during the week, although the European fixture creates a possible fatigue issue.

Fantasy football

Arsenal have several attractive options.

Martin Ødegaard has scored in two of the first three Gameweeks and also scored the winner against Napoli. The official FPL Scout selected him for its Gameweek 4 team.

Declan Rice currently has 13 FPL points, while Arsenal’s established Fantasy options include Bukayo Saka and Gabriel.

Sunderland’s standout current FPL option is Enzo Le Fée on 13 points, with one goal and one clean-sheet contribution.

My pick: Sunderland 0–2 Arsenal.

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⏱️ 3pm Premier League Results — Prediction Check

The five 3pm Premier League matches are now finished. Here is what happened and how the morning predictions performed.

Match	Result	Prediction	Correct?
Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest	1–2	Villa 1–0	❌ No — Forest won
Bournemouth v Brentford	2–2	1–1	🟢 Draw predicted, score wrong
Chelsea v Hull City	2–2	Chelsea 2–0	❌ No — Hull held Chelsea
Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town	2–3	Palace 2–1	❌ No — Ipswich won
Liverpool v Fulham	0–0	Liverpool 3–1	❌ No — Fulham earned a point

Prediction score after the 3pm kick-offs: 0/5 exact score predictions. However, the Bournemouth v Brentford prediction correctly called the match outcome as a draw. The biggest surprises were Hull City’s 2–2 draw at Chelsea and Ipswich Town’s 3–2 victory at Crystal Palace.

What the results mean: Aston Villa’s defeat at home to Forest is a major setback, while Forest gain valuable points. Bournemouth and Brentford remain difficult to separate after another high-scoring draw. Chelsea will be frustrated after Hull came to Stamford Bridge and left with a point. Ipswich produced the afternoon’s biggest away result by beating Palace 3–2. Liverpool will be disappointed after being held 0–0 by Fulham despite being strong favourites in the morning forecast.

Remaining Saturday matches: Tottenham Hotspur v Everton is scheduled for 5:30pm, followed by Sunderland v Arsenal at 8:00pm. The original predictions for those two matches remain Tottenham 1–0 Everton and Sunderland 0–2 Arsenal and will be checked after the final whistle.

⭐ My Fantasy Football team changes today

If I were making changes specifically for this Gameweek, I would prioritise:

BUY / START

1. Cole Palmer — Chelsea
Excellent fixture and penalty potential. The official FPL Scout has him as its Gameweek 4 captain.

2. Alexander Isak — Liverpool
Three goals in his last two league appearances and 23 points already.

3. Cody Gakpo — Liverpool
28 points makes him the highest current scorer among today’s teams in the data reviewed.

4. Alex Scott — Bournemouth
A particularly attractive budget/differential selection with 24 points.

5. Morgan Gibbs-White — Nottingham Forest
18 points and penalty/set-piece potential make him interesting despite the difficult Villa fixture.

DEFENSIVE DIFFERENTIAL

Tyrick Mitchell — Crystal Palace
16 points and two goals so far makes him much more interesting than a conventional budget defender.

My captain

🥇 Cole Palmer

Vice-captain

🥈 Alexander Isak

The official FPL Scout also identifies Palmer, Isak, João Pedro, Gakpo and Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboszlai among the strongest Gameweek 4 options.

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Who would I substitute?

If your existing team contains players facing difficult fixtures or players who have started the season slowly, my priority would be:

OUT → IN

* Low-form midfielder → Palmer
* Non-starting forward → Isak
* Expensive defender with poor fixture → Mitchell
* Low-scoring midfielder → Alex Scott
* Struggling forward → Gakpo

However, check the confirmed starting XI before the deadline, particularly with several clubs carrying injuries. The latest team-news reports show injury concerns across Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Palace and Liverpool.

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📸 Splash News / licensed photograph

For a commercially safe WindsorCastle.info/Statoshi.co.uk article, I would use a licensed Splash News sports photograph rather than copying a Splash photograph directly.

Splash News has been part of the Shutterstock editorial operation, with Shutterstock stating that its Splash archive contained millions of images and thousands of contributors.

Recommended image source/search:
Shutterstock Premier League photographs — licensed images and purchase options

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Sky Sports & BBC Sport previews

Sky Sports

Sky Sports Premier League football

The dedicated Sky Sports Tottenham v Everton preview confirms the 5:30pm kick-off and Sky Sports coverage.

Sky Sports Tottenham v Everton preview

BBC Sport

BBC Sport Football — Premier League

For match-day team news, scores and BBC coverage, this is the safest official BBC Premier League destination rather than using an unverified third-party preview URL.

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Suggested WordPress excerpt:
Seven Premier League matches take place today. We assess every team’s chances of winning, drawing or losing, examine what their previous result could mean, identify the leading Fantasy Football players and select the transfers, captain and substitutes we’d make for Gameweek 4.

Overall best bets for my article’s prediction board: Chelsea win, Liverpool win, Arsenal win, with Bournemouth v Brentford and Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest the closest contests.

Saturday 12 September 2026 Premier League today: our match-by-match assessment of win, draw and lose chances, current Fantasy Football options, likely substitutions and the effect of each team previous result. These percentages are editorial predictions, not bookmaker odds or guarantees. TODAYS MATCHES Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest – Villa 47 percent, draw 27 percent, Forest 26 percent. Prediction: Villa 1-0 Forest. Bournemouth v Brentford – Bournemouth 37 percent, draw 27 percent, Brentford 36 percent. Prediction: 1-1. Chelsea v Hull City – Chelsea 75 percent, draw 16 percent, Hull 9 percent. Prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Hull. Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town – Palace 50 percent, draw 27 percent, Ipswich 23 percent. Prediction: Palace 2-1 Ipswich. Liverpool v Fulham – Liverpool 64 percent, draw 20 percent, Fulham 16 percent. Prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Fulham. Tottenham Hotspur v Everton – Tottenham 48 percent, draw 27 percent, Everton 25 percent. Prediction: Tottenham 1-0 Everton. Sunderland v Arsenal – Sunderland 14 percent, draw 23 percent, Arsenal 63 percent. Prediction: Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal. FANTASY FOOTBALL PICKS Cole Palmer is my captain choice for Chelsea v Hull. Alexander Isak is my vice-captain choice for Liverpool v Fulham. Cody Gakpo, Alex Scott, Tyrick Mitchell and Morgan Gibbs-White are other players I would consider. If I were making substitutions, I would remove players with poor fixtures, uncertain minutes or weak recent returns and prioritise starters with strong fixtures and penalty or set-piece involvement. WHAT THE PREVIOUS RESULT MEANS A win usually brings confidence and can encourage a manager to keep the same attacking approach. A draw can increase the pressure for a response, while a defeat can make the next match more urgent. Liverpool recent win should help their confidence, while Tottenham slow start means todays match carries extra pressure. SKY SPORTS AND BBC SPORT Sky Sports Premier League: https://www.skysports.com/football/premier-league BBC Sport Premier League: https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/premier-league LIVE WINDSORCASTLE.INFO PC APP The live WindsorCastle.info PC web app is available here: https://windsorcastle.info/ PHOTO, LICENCE AND COPYRIGHT If a Splash or Shutterstock editorial photograph is used, keep the exact photographer and agency credit supplied on the licensed image page and follow the licence terms. Do not republish an unlicensed photograph. Copyright Simon Ben G – 12 September 2026. All rights reserved. SEO TITLE Premier League Today: Win, Draw and Lose Chances, FPL Picks and Predictions SEO DESCRIPTION Premier League predictions for today with win, draw and lose chances, Fantasy Football points, captain picks, substitutions, previous-result analysis and live links. SEO KEYWORDS Premier League today, Premier League predictions, Premier League win chances, Premier League draw chances, Fantasy Football, FPL tips, Gameweek 4, Chelsea Hull, Liverpool Fulham, Arsenal Sunderland, Tottenham Everton. CATEGORIES Premier League, Football, Fantasy Football, Sports Predictions. TAGS @PremierLeague @PremierLeagueToday @FPL @FantasyFootball @FPLTips @Gameweek4 @FootballPredictions @Chelsea @HullCity @Liverpool @Fulham @Arsenal @Sunderland @Tottenham @Everton